Jeff Galloway has an interesting race time prediction formula; he calls it The Magic Mile. It's an interesting concept. Here's a more elaborate PDF explaining the concept. The formula is, basically to take your one mile time and adjust as follows:
- add 33 seconds for your pace for a 5K
- multiply by 1.15 for 10K pace
- multiply by 1.2 for half marathon pace
- multiply by 1.3 for marathon pace
Today I ran a mile on a track. I didn't follow his directions, and it's basically my pace for a short run. I ran today's mile in 8:24, which predicts a 5K time of 27:45. My most recent 5K time? 28:32. Interesting. It also predicts a 4:46 marathon. Ugh!
In order to get to a sub-4 hour marathon, you would need a MM (Magic Mile) time of 7:01 or lower. That might be hard to do!!!
Interesting stuff. My fastest 440 in the mile today was 1:59; to hit the 7:01, I'd need to do all 4 of them in 1:45. Perhaps I could do it...
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